Depression

The markets are in a state of total apathy, anger and depression. No one cares anymore, and no one is bidding. Which has always been the best time to pay most attention.

Gm friends, and welcome back to another edition of Syko Therapy.

Things continue to move along as expected from Bitcoin and the wider market after we lost our key $74,000 level. As we spoke about at length before we lost that level, losing it would mean more of a grinding it out bottoming process, rather than our preferred thesis of the expanded flat reversal. And that was a frustrating one because every other wider market chart has moved as it should, but Bitcoin did not. However, as always with investing, we simply have to adapt.

Where we find ourselves now is in a state of apathy, anger, and are now moving into depression. The Bitcoin chart is still very weak, and even though it is and has been deeply oversold for sometime, the loss of conviction and capitulation from holders has put Bitcoin into a position where even though the selling momentum has slowed, there are currently not many people bidding. But this is the exact kind of environment we would expect to find ourselves in at the latter stage of a long bearish correction like this, and signals to us that it is much closer to the end than the beginning.

And even though it is very challenging to stay convicted within these periods of a market cycle, that is why we must. Anyone that tries to tell you they have made every single move correctly, has not. Even though I have been entertaining all outcomes, regardless of the conviction I had in the $74,000 level, only 2 out of 3 of my major bottom buys are in profit - and that is simply the way it goes. When accumulating positions within bottom zones, you have to be prepared to go underwater for a while, because we simply cannot predict the 100% future. It is a process of hammering it out, adding your positions, and staying convicted whilst everyone else runs away.

So, even though I cannot say to you that the macro low is 100% in, I feel I can say that it is very close. Today, I will be updating our major market charts and on-chain metrics, as well as discussing the rate hike/cut situation and the new FED chair, Kevin Warsh.

Let’s get straight into it!