Crunch Time

The Market is preparing to move

Gm friends, and welcome back to another edition of Syko Therapy!

Things continue to move in line with my overall expectations, but as in true Bitcoin fashion, it makes its moves as close as it can to invalidating a structure before completely reversing. Once you understand that this is how the Crypto markets work, it makes it a lot easier to stay true to your conviction, even as the price really tests the overall robustness of it. And it is this way by design.

The market makers(mainly exchanges) are here to liquidate as many people as possible and make as much money as possible - it really is not much different to a casino. Therefore, to win, you have to have skills. You have to be able to recognise the tactics and methods market makers use to mislead and manipulate you, and have a clearly defined thesis with clearly defined levels.

The reason this is so important is that, as I just mentioned, every structure will be pushed to its limits, look like its losing it, and if it is correct, then reverse hard. Because the vast majority will flip on their conviction at the worst possible moment(as its invalidation is being tested), get rekt, and then have to watch the price reverse and go the way they initially believed it would anyway. In simple terms, it’s why people get bearish after long drops close to key support levels, and bullish after price pushes close to key resistance levels. It’s the total opposite of what you should do.

The main lesson here is that the closer your levels get to being invalidated, the more convicted you should be, and the easier the risk is to manage because the invalidation is so obvious and so close. Only once you lose the level clearly, on a HTF basis, should you flip. And when that happens you should flip fast.

Right now, Bitcoin is doing exactly what I have just described. We had the drop to $60k, the grind up, the HTF closes back in Bullish structure, and the HTF close above the previous range low to shake the bears. Now, we have had a retrace back down to $74,400 to test the break of structure, shaking the bulls.

Either way we go now will be decided very soon, as there isn’t much more room left to run before invalidation with acceptance back below $74,400, or to reverse back up and begin a new run to the highs.

Today, I will go over all the up to date data, provide my thoughts on this, and cover Ethereum and some key altcoins that are signalling to us about where the overall altcoin market wants to go.

Let’s get into it!

Strong Range

In last weeks edition I covered how I expected our HTF key level to be tested, and it was. Bitcoin reached a price of $74,200, and then reversed back up very quickly to $77,000+. We are now holding at around these prices as Bitcoin continues to respect our key HTF structure.

My base expectations here haven’t changed. I am expecting this level to hold, and for Bitcoin to reverse back up fairly soon, within the start of June, and break through the 200EMA at $83,000 and continue. A sweep of the weekend low at $74,100 is probable, and what I am anticipating to happen this week.

To note: Our invalidation is clear as day. As you all know I am HTF bullish, but if we lose $74,400 on the weekly, I will become a lot more defensive.

Strong opinions, loosely held.

I want to now speak about this current Bitcoin range and help you guys understand why it cannot be compared to any other period in which Bitcoin has gone on to make new lows. There is a lot of noise out there, and a lot of nonsense about bear flags and break downs, without any context or in-depth analysis whatsoever.